Posts Tagged ‘Polls’
Poll Watch
High Point University hit a low point in polling. Last Friday, four days before Tuesday’s primary, the HPU poll reported this in the Democratic race for N.C. Attorney General: Satana Deberry 31% Tim Dunn 33% Jeff Jackson 36% The poll was right on the money. About Deberry. She got 33% of the vote.…
Read MoreIgnore Media Polls
A week ago, The New York Times published a poll predicting disaster for President Biden and Democrats in big states a year from now. Two days later, voters gave Democrats big victories in big states: Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Why are media polls so wrong so often? My suspicion: they’re done on the cheap.…
Read MoreDo a poll
Carter and I disagree on most every issue, but we agree on one big thing: Good polling is essential in a campaign. Which is why I’m obsessed with why Hillary Clinton’s campaign stopped state-level polling in the final weeks of 2016. I think about that decision every time Trump does something dumb, despicable or dangerous…
Read MoreWhy Hillary lost, continued
Bill Clinton’s old pollster Stanley Greenberg joins the pile piling onto Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Greenberg’s most striking point is the campaign’s overreliance on “data analytics” and under-reliance on polls, focus groups and good old political gut. In other words, the campaign abandoned the very same techniques that made Bill Clinton a winner in 1992…
Read MoreWhy the polls were wrong
Nate Cohn of The New York Times Upshot column has an eye-opening analysis of why so many state-level polls were wrong about Trump and Clinton last year. More on that later. But bad polls aren’t to blame for Hillary Clinton’s loss. Because her campaign didn’t do polls. That’s the most shattering revelation in a new…
Read MorePoll-axed
A good poll can guide you safely through the political jungle. A bad one can lead you into a death trap. Witness Pat McCrory. Jim Morrill reported in The Charlotte Observer (“A day before McCrory signed HB2, he got a poll that showed it would be popular”) that: “Former Republican Gov. Pat McCrory signed House…
Read More(Mis)reading polls
A reporter recently sent me a long list of detailed questions about how to tell if a political poll is reliable. Things like margin of error, sample size, live vs. robocalls, question wording, question order, the pollsters’ track record, partisan affiliation, past performance, etc. All good stuff. But face it, you’re not going to that…
Read MoreIn praise of (some) polls
You can count on two perennial stories at this stage in the election cycle: (1) stories about the latest polls and (2) denunciations of all the stories about the latest polls. Frank Bruni wrote in The New York Times (“Our insane addiction to polls”), “I’d say that we’re in a period of polling bloat, but…
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