Prequel to November?
2012-05-09 - by
Four years ago, the May primary thrust North Carolina into the national spotlight. An unexpected surge of new voters clinched the Democratic presidential nomination for Barack Obama. The tide raged on into November. It lifted Democrats to one of their biggest election victories in decades.
This year, we’re back in the spotlight. This time, an unexpected surge of voters lifted a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage to a bigger-than-expected victory.
Does the parallel end there? Or will Tuesday’s surge continue into November, carrying Republicans to an even bigger victory than 2010?
Here’s one big difference: Four years ago, Obama was on the ballot again in November. He gave the new voters reason to stay engaged. But the gay-marriage amendment won’t be on the ballot again.
(And for that, Democrats should thank the oft-vilified legislators who cut the deal that put the amendment on the primary ballot, instead of November’s.)
But one impact of the referendum will be to energize the church-based voters who turned out in droves Tuesday. And the idealistic young voters who turned out against it may retreat into anger, apathy, and cynicism.
Opponents of the amendment never had a chance. They also misread the basic nature of North Carolina. They believed that a turnout of 35-40 percent would help them. Turnout was high, and it was high in a handful of big, urban counties that opposed the amendment. But turnout was just as high in rural counties where church-goers’ view of God’s law – and Billy Graham’s – is clear.
Will Mitt Romney and Pat McCrory stir the same fervor? Doubtful.
Will the “new North Carolina” voters give up – or fight on? That could decide the November election.
Prequel to November?
2012-05-09/
Four years ago, the May primary thrust North Carolina into the national spotlight. An unexpected surge of new voters clinched the Democratic presidential nomination for Barack Obama. The tide raged on into November. It lifted Democrats to one of their biggest election victories in decades.
This year, we’re back in the spotlight. This time, an unexpected surge of voters lifted a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage to a bigger-than-expected victory.
Does the parallel end there? Or will Tuesday’s surge continue into November, carrying Republicans to an even bigger victory than 2010?
Here’s one big difference: Four years ago, Obama was on the ballot again in November. He gave the new voters reason to stay engaged. But the gay-marriage amendment won’t be on the ballot again.
(And for that, Democrats should thank the oft-vilified legislators who cut the deal that put the amendment on the primary ballot, instead of November’s.)
But one impact of the referendum will be to energize the church-based voters who turned out in droves Tuesday. And the idealistic young voters who turned out against it may retreat into anger, apathy, and cynicism.
Opponents of the amendment never had a chance. They also misread the basic nature of North Carolina. They believed that a turnout of 35-40 percent would help them. Turnout was high, and it was high in a handful of big, urban counties that opposed the amendment. But turnout was just as high in rural counties where church-goers’ view of God’s law – and Billy Graham’s – is clear.
Will Mitt Romney and Pat McCrory stir the same fervor? Doubtful.
Will the “new North Carolina” voters give up – or fight on? That could decide the November election.