Ten polls yesterday in New Hampshire; John McCain led in nine; Barack Obama in all ten.

The press loves a good story and Obama’s given them one: David slaying the Clinton Goliath. And the press has gone a little berserk. Hillary’s best hope is to hold on until the wave passes. Which takes two things: Time and money. Money she has. Time she may run out of. Obama may roar through South Carolina and into Super Tuesday first. But, then, he may not.

John McCain’s road to the nomination has more curves then Obama’s because he needs to knock out two candidates: Romney and Huckabee. He needs to win New Hampshire and Michigan both to stop Romney. Then win South Carolina to stop Huckabee. If he wins tonight all three are within reach. But if Huckabee or Romney upend him later in either South Carolina or Michigan the Republican campaign turns into a two – or three – way race.

It hurts to say, but John Edwards did well in last weekend’s debates. But he’s in a corner. He hardly moved in the polls. He and Obama are two peas in a pod – only Obama’s the alpha-pea and Edwards is stuck behind him.

Fred Thomspon’s dilemma’s not quite as bad as Edwards. He’s stuck behind Huckabee (on the right) and McCain (in the center), which leaves him no choice but to take on one or the other. Otherwise, barring a gift, he remains stuck.

Mitt Romney’s just bailing water trying to stay afloat. In one way he’s run the best campaign of all the leading Republican candidates: Raising more money, getting on TV earlier and taking early leads in key states over his opponents. But he’s also proved an excellent campaign with a flawed strategy implodes. He assumed his record in Massachusetts wouldn’t matter and that turned out to be wrong. He also made a big to-do about explaining his religion, when in fact he didn’t explain it at all. Now he’s taking a lesson from Barack Obama saying he’s a candidate of change, hoping to squeak out a tactical victory in New Hampshire or Michigan (despite his strategy). If he does he’s back in the race. If not like Hillary he has the money to hang on, but his problem is his credibility may be shot. If he can’t get back on his feet by South Caroline it’s hard to see him stopping McCain or competing with Huckabee and McCain on Super-Tuesday.

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