Blind Chance

The Washington Post recently published an article headlined: ‘Megalomaniac’ Trump vs ‘deceitful’ Clinton: How Virginia voters see the presidential race.

The Post reported, according to a focus group of thirty undecided voters Donald Trump is “phony,” “crazy,” “arrogant,” “dumb,” “bigoted,” “self-centered,” and a “charlatan.”

Hillary, the voters said, is “old,” “deceitful,” “a liar” and “slimy.” One woman called Hillary ‘a man eater.’

Another woman said, ‘Trump’s brain is a bag of cats, and it’s a crapshoot what Trump you’re going to get.’

The frustration rings true. But can thirty voters really tell us how five million Virginia voters see Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?

No.

To be reliable a poll in Virginia must survey hundreds of people – and, even then, the poll’s only statistically accurate within three or four percentage points. Statistically, a focus group of thirty people has no validity at all. It’s simply the Washington Post reporting the opinions of thirty people – a fact the Post never pointed out.

Focus Groups make great TV. Republican Frank Luntz has created a mini-career doing focus groups on Fox News. But next time you hear a reporter say, We interviewed thirty people and now we know what voters think – take it with a grain of salt.

Remember, if it’s right it’s only due to blind chance.

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Carter Wrenn

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Blind Chance

The Washington Post recently published an article headlined: ‘Megalomaniac’ Trump vs ‘deceitful’ Clinton: How Virginia voters see the presidential race.

The Post reported, according to a focus group of thirty undecided voters Donald Trump is “phony,” “crazy,” “arrogant,” “dumb,” “bigoted,” “self-centered,” and a “charlatan.”

Hillary, the voters said, is “old,” “deceitful,” “a liar” and “slimy.” One woman called Hillary ‘a man eater.’

Another woman said, ‘Trump’s brain is a bag of cats, and it’s a crapshoot what Trump you’re going to get.’

The frustration rings true. But can thirty voters really tell us how five million Virginia voters see Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?

No.

To be reliable a poll in Virginia must survey hundreds of people – and, even then, the poll’s only statistically accurate within three or four percentage points. Statistically, a focus group of thirty people has no validity at all. It’s simply the Washington Post reporting the opinions of thirty people – a fact the Post never pointed out.

Focus Groups make great TV. Republican Frank Luntz has created a mini-career doing focus groups on Fox News. But next time you hear a reporter say, We interviewed thirty people and now we know what voters think – take it with a grain of salt.

Remember, if it’s right it’s only due to blind chance.

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Carter Wrenn

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