Is Trump 2016’s Ross Perot?

Didn’t we see this movie before? A billionaire with a big ego and a bigger mouth seizes the stage, runs for President as an independent and ends up electing President Clinton.

That was Ross Perot in 1992. Now Donald Trump is warning he may go third-party next year. Visions of Republican chaos and a Clinton landslide dance in Democrats’ heads.

Not so fast, my friends.

In 1992, Perot channeled America’s economic anxieties. That was right out of the Democrats’ playbook.

But Trump is controlling the campaign today because he’s channeling national-security anxieties. That’s right out of the Republicans’ playbook.

Every Democratic candidate, from the White House to the legislature, had better reckon with the new reality since the San Bernardino killing. Because every Republican candidate is going to turn every race into: Who can best protect you against Islamic terrorists?

Historically, when the economy is the issue, Democrats win. See 1992 and 2008. When the issue is national security – and domestic safety – Republicans win. See 1980 and 2004.

Yes, a third-party run by Trump could ruin Republicans’ chances. But right now, for all his excesses, Trump is putting the Republicans’ strongest issue in the news 24/7.

 

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Gary Pearce

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Is Trump 2016’s Ross Perot?

Didn’t we see this movie before? A billionaire with a big ego and a bigger mouth seizes the stage, runs for President as an independent and ends up electing President Clinton.

That was Ross Perot in 1992. Now Donald Trump is warning he may go third-party next year. Visions of Republican chaos and a Clinton landslide dance in Democrats’ heads.

Not so fast, my friends.

In 1992, Perot channeled America’s economic anxieties. That was right out of the Democrats’ playbook.

But Trump is controlling the campaign today because he’s channeling national-security anxieties. That’s right out of the Republicans’ playbook.

Every Democratic candidate, from the White House to the legislature, had better reckon with the new reality since the San Bernardino killing. Because every Republican candidate is going to turn every race into: Who can best protect you against Islamic terrorists?

Historically, when the economy is the issue, Democrats win. See 1992 and 2008. When the issue is national security – and domestic safety – Republicans win. See 1980 and 2004.

Yes, a third-party run by Trump could ruin Republicans’ chances. But right now, for all his excesses, Trump is putting the Republicans’ strongest issue in the news 24/7.

 

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Gary Pearce

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