Frozen

Ten weeks out, the presidential election appears frozen in place. Absent an act of God or an incredibly boneheaded play by the Hillary Clinton campaign, she is going to win and Donald Trump is going to lose. Big.

Then things will really get interesting. More in a bit.

Trump is losing because of how he won the Republican nomination. He roused the racists and bigots. He galvanized angry white working-class men. And he shredded the Republican Establishment with insults.

His fans loved it. Most voters hated it. And he can’t change that now. A presidential candidate as well-known as he is with a 35 percent favorable rating isn’t going anywhere. Especially a candidate as undisciplined as Trump.

Clinton’s campaign has learned how to play him. Every time the news cycle turns bad for her, they call Trump “racist” or “dangerous” or “unfit for office” and – presto – he goes ballistic and says something racist, dangerous and unfit for office.

Since the conventions, the polling consensus shows her solidly ahead nationally and, more important, decisively ahead in the decisive states.

The big question now is what Republicans who hate Trump do. That will be the difference between a solid Clinton win and a landslide.

Then the question will be what happens after the election. Will Trump stay active and continue the Republican Civil War? Will Trump, Ailes and their alt-right allies make the next four or eight years even more bitter and brutal than the last eight?

Or will Hillary, who always has been more popular in office than running for office, have the political skill to build a center-left coalition that actually gets something done the next four or eight years?

Can the Ice Princess thaw her image and unfreeze our politics?

 

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Gary Pearce

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Frozen

Ten weeks out, the presidential election appears frozen in place. Absent an act of God or an incredibly boneheaded play by the Hillary Clinton campaign, she is going to win and Donald Trump is going to lose. Big.

Then things will really get interesting. More in a bit.

Trump is losing because of how he won the Republican nomination. He roused the racists and bigots. He galvanized angry white working-class men. And he shredded the Republican Establishment with insults.

His fans loved it. Most voters hated it. And he can’t change that now. A presidential candidate as well-known as he is with a 35 percent favorable rating isn’t going anywhere. Especially a candidate as undisciplined as Trump.

Clinton’s campaign has learned how to play him. Every time the news cycle turns bad for her, they call Trump “racist” or “dangerous” or “unfit for office” and – presto – he goes ballistic and says something racist, dangerous and unfit for office.

Since the conventions, the polling consensus shows her solidly ahead nationally and, more important, decisively ahead in the decisive states.

The big question now is what Republicans who hate Trump do. That will be the difference between a solid Clinton win and a landslide.

Then the question will be what happens after the election. Will Trump stay active and continue the Republican Civil War? Will Trump, Ailes and their alt-right allies make the next four or eight years even more bitter and brutal than the last eight?

Or will Hillary, who always has been more popular in office than running for office, have the political skill to build a center-left coalition that actually gets something done the next four or eight years?

Can the Ice Princess thaw her image and unfreeze our politics?

 

Avatar photo

Gary Pearce

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Archives