John Edwards’ presidential announcement last week demonstrated why it’s better to be lucky than smart in politics.

The Edwards team had a good strategy: a two-day made-for-TV announcement in New Orleans. And what seemed like good timing: the news-dead week between Christmas and New Year’s.

Then Gerald Ford died. And Sadaam Hussein was hanged. And even James Brown died.

All that took up a lot of TV time. Especially when – like a voice from the beyond – an interview surfaced in which Ford criticized the Iraq war.

Last week may not make much difference. Edwards will have plenty of chances later to get bigger boosts.

But the lesson is clear: You can’t predict much in politics. Weird things happen. Sometimes you get lucky, like we did in Edwards’ 1998 Senate campaign. And sometimes you don’t.

Political pros are like ants on a log caught in a river raging downstream. We think we’re steering. More often than not, we’re just hanging on.

To comment, send us an email to comment@talkingaboutpolitics.com.