A Bad Sign?

In a political campaign signs can tell you who’s up or who’s down: A tremor in a candidate’s voice, an evasive campaign manager, and polls (though these days a lot of polls are silly). When one campaign cuts back its media buys, as the other ramps up, that’s another sign. I read a story in…

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Last Respects

Thirty-five years ago, the morning George Crile – a producer at 60 Minutes who later wrote the book Charlie Wilson’s War – called I thought, An interview with 60 Minutes – what’s the difference between that and sticking your head in a lion’s mouth? I said: ‘I reckon you know the chances of Tom Ellis…

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What a Poll Missed

During Ronald Reagan’s 1976 primary Tom Ellis and I sat in a room listening to Arthur Finkelstein explain his first poll for Reagan in North Carolina – forty years later, sitting in my office across the table from Arthur, I listened to him explain his polls for George Holding. Sadly, a year later, Arthur passed…

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Politics 101

Imagine for a moment that you’re a Republican candidate running in a down ballot race in a swing district: Your fate is in the hands of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. For example: Turnout. If Democrats vote and Republicans don’t your ship sinks – but there’s not much you can do about that. Biden and…

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An Uncomfortable Question

The phone rang, a friend’s voice asked, ‘Do you believe John Bolton?’ ‘I do.’ ‘Why?’ ‘I’ve known him for 40 years.’ ‘So you think Trump smeared him?’ ‘Yes.’ Angry, Trump had branded John Bolton a liar, fool, washed up, whacko and a sick puppy. There’s no one quite like Trump when he’s on a tirade…

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Coronavirus Journal, April 5

Coronavirus first reared its head in China in January but it wasn’t until two months later that HHS placed its first order to stockpile masks. A foible. Oklahoma ordered 16,000 face shields – FEMA sent 120,000. North Carolina ordered 500,000 coveralls – FEMA sent 306. HHS had over 16,000 ventilators in the stockpile – but…

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A Hard Look and a Prayer

The morning the Japanese sunk our fleet at Pearl Harbor Americans took a hard look at Franklin Roosevelt with one question on their minds: Is he up to the job? After the Stock Market Crash in 1929 the same hard look undid for Hebert Hoover and, during the Iran Hostage Crisis, it sank Jimmy Carter.…

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Part II of Trump’s Plan

Back in 2016 Hillary got a shock during Early Voting – Blacks who’d voted for Obama stayed home and didn’t vote for her. I remember looking at the bleak (for Hillary) numbers: In 2012, when Obama ran, 22% of the voters in North Carolina were African-Americans. In 2016, only 18% of the voters were African-Americans.…

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How Trump’s Going to Conquer Ambivalence

Years ago a political savant told me, There’re three types of elections: One, the election where you like both candidates and vote for the one you like most. Two, the election where you like one candidate and dislike the other – that one’s easy, you vote for the candidate you like. Three, the election where…

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The Election: How Vanity Bred a Mistake

At his rallies Donald Trump roars about the might of his base – in his eyes it’s the key to his defeating Joe Biden. So he tweets (to his base) how he has the highest approval rating among Republicans of any President, even Lincoln – but Trump’s calculation may boomerang: If every Republican Trumpster in…

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