In the Senate race it’s deja vu all over again for the third time: The same scarlet thread running through the races for President and Governor runs right on through Elizabeth Dole’s race.

If you like George Bush, you vote for Senator Dole. If you don’t, you vote for Kay Hagan – except for a handful of anti-Bush Republicans.

And, just as with McCain and McCrory, the remnant of old Jessecrats – 7% of the vote – who are favorable to President Bush break party ranks and vote for Senator Dole. So, she leads:

Elizabeth Dole Kay Hagan Christopher Cole Undecided

44.5 41.0 1.0 14.5

The undecided voters also like Dole more than Hagan.

	Dole	Hagan
Favorable	32	12
Unfavorable	30	24

And the undecided votes in Dole’s race are voting for John McCain over Barack Obama for President.

McCain	44
Obama	22
Barr	3
Undecided	31

To put it bluntly: Senator Dole needs 41% of the undecided vote to win – and that 44% voting for McCain should give it to her.

Finally, there’s one other fact about the undecided voters. They don’t like President Bush.

	Bush
Favorable	35
Unfavorable	46

That’s good and bad news for Kay Hagan. Good because she’ll almost surely get the 46%. Bad because she needs 62% of the undecided vote to win – so even if she gets the support of every undecided voter unfavorable to President Bush – she still comes up short.

Tomorrow…the Final Chapter.

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