Polls and Guesses

NBC News and Marist University have released an 11th hour poll in Iowa – in the last four weeks 19% of the voters have switched candidates, almost half going to Rick Santorum with most of the rest splitting between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.  
 
Ballot
Change
Romney
23%
+4
Paul
21%
+2
Santorum
15%
+9
Perry
14%
+4
Gingrich
13%
-15
Bachmann
6%
-1
Huntsman
2%
0
Undecided
7%
-2
Now, traditionally Iowa begins a winnowing out process where struggling candidates withdraw and right now, it looks like that’s likely to be Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann and John Huntsman – so who gains their votes?
 
When asked who their second choice would be Gingrich voters said:
 
Second Choice
Romney
38%
Perry
24%
Santorum
17%
Paul
5%
Bachmann and Huntsman voters said: 
Second Choice
Santorum
31%
Romney
28%
Perry
24%
Paul
11%
So, once the smoke clears, no one ‘runs the table’ but Romney gains the most. 
Romney
+7
Perry
+5
Santorum
+4.5
Paul
+1.5
Next the pollster asked voters, Which candidates are not acceptable to you as the Republican nominee?  Romney was most acceptable. Ron Paul was least acceptable. 
 
Acceptable
Somewhat Acceptable
Total
Not
Acceptable
Romney
50
27
77
21
Perry
44
29
73
24
Santorum
49
22
71
22
Paul
35
21
57
41
And who do Gingrich voters say is unacceptable to them? 
Paul
61%
Perry
39%
Romney
38%
Santorum
23%
And Bachmann voters? 
Paul
50%
Romney
44%
Perry
29%
Santorum
14%
So Mitt Romney may be stuck around 25% of the vote but it doesn’t look like he’s ‘capped’ – in fact, he gains the most if Bachmann, Gingrich and Huntsman withdraw.
 
Santorum has the momentum and if Gingrich and Bachmann withdraw he stands to gain as much, or maybe even a bit more, than Perry but he needs a three way race with Romney and Paul – not a four way race including Perry. Santorum’s other advantage is he’s moving most with more conservative voters – which is the right place to move in the primaries.
 
For Rick Perry, there’re surprising signs of hope – he’s moved up as much as Romney and as a ‘second choice’ he matches Santorum; plus, he knows, after Iowa Santorum’s going to get the same scrutiny Bachman and Cain and Gingrich got earlier and if Santorum tanks his voters second choice is: Rick Perry.
 
Oddly, Gingrich and Bachmann withdrawing helps Ron Paul very little. And with 41% of the voters saying he’s unacceptable as a nominee he’s trapped beneath a low ceiling.
 

 

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Carter Wrenn

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Polls and Guesses

NBC News and Marist University have released an 11th hour poll in Iowa – in the last four weeks 19% of the voters have switched candidates, almost half going to Rick Santorum with most of the rest splitting between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.  
 
Ballot
Change
Romney
23%
+4
Paul
21%
+2
Santorum
15%
+9
Perry
14%
+4
Gingrich
13%
-15
Bachmann
6%
-1
Huntsman
2%
0
Undecided
7%
-2
Now, traditionally Iowa begins a winnowing out process where struggling candidates withdraw and right now, it looks like that’s likely to be Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann and John Huntsman – so who gains their votes?
 
When asked who their second choice would be Gingrich voters said:
 
Second Choice
Romney
38%
Perry
24%
Santorum
17%
Paul
5%
Bachmann and Huntsman voters said: 
Second Choice
Santorum
31%
Romney
28%
Perry
24%
Paul
11%
So, once the smoke clears, no one ‘runs the table’ but Romney gains the most. 
Romney
+7
Perry
+5
Santorum
+4.5
Paul
+1.5
Next the pollster asked voters, Which candidates are not acceptable to you as the Republican nominee?  Romney was most acceptable. Ron Paul was least acceptable. 
 
Acceptable
Somewhat Acceptable
Total
Not
Acceptable
Romney
50
27
77
21
Perry
44
29
73
24
Santorum
49
22
71
22
Paul
35
21
57
41
And who do Gingrich voters say is unacceptable to them? 
Paul
61%
Perry
39%
Romney
38%
Santorum
23%
And Bachmann voters? 
Paul
50%
Romney
44%
Perry
29%
Santorum
14%
So Mitt Romney may be stuck around 25% of the vote but it doesn’t look like he’s ‘capped’ – in fact, he gains the most if Bachmann, Gingrich and Huntsman withdraw.
 
Santorum has the momentum and if Gingrich and Bachmann withdraw he stands to gain as much, or maybe even a bit more, than Perry but he needs a three way race with Romney and Paul – not a four way race including Perry. Santorum’s other advantage is he’s moving most with more conservative voters – which is the right place to move in the primaries.
 
For Rick Perry, there’re surprising signs of hope – he’s moved up as much as Romney and as a ‘second choice’ he matches Santorum; plus, he knows, after Iowa Santorum’s going to get the same scrutiny Bachman and Cain and Gingrich got earlier and if Santorum tanks his voters second choice is: Rick Perry.
 
Oddly, Gingrich and Bachmann withdrawing helps Ron Paul very little. And with 41% of the voters saying he’s unacceptable as a nominee he’s trapped beneath a low ceiling.
 

 

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Carter Wrenn

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