Election Eve

Perhaps the essential truth about election days is their ambiguity. Today, of course, we Republicans are asking each other if the 2nd Coming, politically, is at hand. But even on Election Day the imponderables offer no answers.
 
Realizing how we humans hate ambiguity the cable TV networks have fed us a steady diet of pundits offering answers to calm us – answers that generally have more to do with the pundits’ political agendas than facts.
 
Here is one fact: Two years ago, President Obama won North Carolina due to a spectacular surge in African-American participation in the election. We Republicans have been telling ourselves that would not happen this year because President Obama is not on the ballot. But, early voting seems to negate our theory.
 
21.5% of all registered voters are African-American and 21.9% of the ‘early voters’ were African-Americans – which would seem to say there has been no real decline in African-American turnout. But, then, again, ambiguity sets in.
 
Hopeful Republicans argue these facts are misleading: They point out in 2008 African-Americans were a whopping 26.5% of the ‘early voters’ – so, the fact African-Americans are 21.9% of the ‘early voters’ this year may be a sign African-American turnout is dropping 4.6%.
 
But who knows?
 
Here is another fact: Unaffiliated voters are 22% of the registered voters; this year they were 17% of the early voters. Their turnout seems to have declined. But, then again, maybe not: Two years ago Unaffiliateds were 18% of the ‘early voters’ – so, maybe there’s no real change.
 
Republicans are 31.5% of the registered voters; two years ago they were 30% of the ‘early voters.’ This year they’re 36.5%. A Republican surge of 5 to 6.5 % points.
 
Democrats, by comparison, are 46.4% of the registered voters and were 46% of the early voters. That sounds flat but, then, two years ago Democrats were 51% of the ‘early voters’ – so maybe Democratic turnout is dropping.
 
What does all that jumble of numbers mean?
 
It means if the early voting trends hold true through tonight Republicans could be 6.5 points more of the electorate than two years ago. A big boost. Had that happened in 2008, instead of losing to Obama by an eyelash John McCain would have won North Carolina by 6%.
 
But will the Republican surge in early voting hold true through tonight? More ambiguities.
 
One last fact: Gridlock is written into the genetic code of American politics and government. And it was put there intentionally. To prevent any one person – or group of people – from getting enough power to do a great deal of damage. The Obama sweep two years ago overcame our government’s prosperity for gridlock. So, Republicans winning, say, the House of Representatives will at least restore a balance (and brake) on government that has been missing – and that is not a bad change at all.
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Carter Wrenn

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Election Eve

Perhaps the essential truth about election days is their ambiguity. Today, of course, we Republicans are asking each other if the 2nd Coming, politically, is at hand. But even on Election Day the imponderables offer no answers.
 
Realizing how we humans hate ambiguity the cable TV networks have fed us a steady diet of pundits offering answers to calm us – answers that generally have more to do with the pundits’ political agendas than facts.
 
Here is one fact: Two years ago, President Obama won North Carolina due to a spectacular surge in African-American participation in the election. We Republicans have been telling ourselves that would not happen this year because President Obama is not on the ballot. But, early voting seems to negate our theory.
 
21.5% of all registered voters are African-American and 21.9% of the ‘early voters’ were African-Americans – which would seem to say there has been no real decline in African-American turnout. But, then, again, ambiguity sets in.
 
Hopeful Republicans argue these facts are misleading: They point out in 2008 African-Americans were a whopping 26.5% of the ‘early voters’ – so, the fact African-Americans are 21.9% of the ‘early voters’ this year may be a sign African-American turnout is dropping 4.6%.
 
But who knows?
 
Here is another fact: Unaffiliated voters are 22% of the registered voters; this year they were 17% of the early voters. Their turnout seems to have declined. But, then again, maybe not: Two years ago Unaffiliateds were 18% of the ‘early voters’ – so, maybe there’s no real change.
 
Republicans are 31.5% of the registered voters; two years ago they were 30% of the ‘early voters.’ This year they’re 36.5%. A Republican surge of 5 to 6.5 % points.
 
Democrats, by comparison, are 46.4% of the registered voters and were 46% of the early voters. That sounds flat but, then, two years ago Democrats were 51% of the ‘early voters’ – so maybe Democratic turnout is dropping.
 
What does all that jumble of numbers mean?
 
It means if the early voting trends hold true through tonight Republicans could be 6.5 points more of the electorate than two years ago. A big boost. Had that happened in 2008, instead of losing to Obama by an eyelash John McCain would have won North Carolina by 6%.
 
But will the Republican surge in early voting hold true through tonight? More ambiguities.
 
One last fact: Gridlock is written into the genetic code of American politics and government. And it was put there intentionally. To prevent any one person – or group of people – from getting enough power to do a great deal of damage. The Obama sweep two years ago overcame our government’s prosperity for gridlock. So, Republicans winning, say, the House of Representatives will at least restore a balance (and brake) on government that has been missing – and that is not a bad change at all.
Avatar photo

Carter Wrenn

Categories

Archives