The biggest demographic problem for the Republican Party may not be Hispanics, but cities – and increasing urbanization.
In 2012, Democrats won in cities, and Republicans won outside the cities. The more urban a state’s population, the more likely it voted for Obama.
Unfortunately for Republicans – in North Carolina and nationally – cities are where the growth is. Already, the Southern Growth Policies Board says, almost 60 percent of the U.S. population lives in cities of one million or more.
And the trend is accelerating. That’s because most job growth is in the cities – like the Triangle and Charlotte metro areas.
By 2030, North Carolina is expected to grow by another three million people. Where do you think they’ll live?
This is all part of the “Big Sort.” People in cities are younger and more culturally attuned to Democrats. One example: attitudes about gay marriage.
Governor-elect McCrory won big partly because he did better in cities, especially his home county of Mecklenburg. He beat Romney there by some 40,000 votes.
Maybe that’s why McCrory and Speaker Thom Tillis were less vehement about Raleigh’s Dix deal than Senator Phil Berger.
For Democrats, this is all reason for hope.
For McCrory, it poses a policy/political question: Does he resist this trend with his economic-development policies? Does he try to force job growth away from cities? Is that even doable?