Why did President Obama announce he’s against Amendment One? Because African-American voters strongly support it.
Since African-Americans lean so strongly Democratic, an oft-overlooked fact is that they are the most church-going, religious and even evangelical voting blocs in a religious, church-going state. And polls show they strongly oppose same-sex marriages.
The recent Elon Poll gave hope to amendment opponents. It showed that 54 percent of respondents (all North Carolinians, not registered or likely voters) oppose the amendment; 38 percent support it.
I’m more skeptical. Private polls show strong support among voters statewide.
The prospect of a competitive and meaningful Republican presidential primary won’t help. It will turn out Republicans. And heavy African-American turnout in the Democratic primaries for governor and lieutenant governor won’t help.
The best thing opponents have going for them is that the amendment is poorly written and could hurt a lot of people, not just same-sex couples.
It’s also counter-intuitive to vote “against” the amendment. Voters are used to hearing about amendments that support same-sex marriage.
So maybe opponents should target Republican and conservative voters with a simple message: “Vote AGAINST the gay-marriage amendment. Vote NO in May.”
Confusion can be your friend.