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Gary Pearce posted on July 16, 2010 10:18
One of the hardest things to do in politics – when a “crisis” comes at you every day, or every hour – is to recognize when you face a truly defining moment.
Governor Perdue faces one now with the Highway Patrol. How she handles it could determine the course of her governorship – and whether she gets reelected.
It’s human nature to minimize a crisis, to believe you’ve got it handled, to convince yourself it will go away.
One of Bill Clinton’s great political skills was his ability to sniff out looming trouble. He would start ranting and raving at his aides, forcing them to confront the issue. Often as not, his instincts were right.
President Obama lacks that skill. His rise was too smooth, and his experience too short. That’s why he missed the health-care uprising August – and was slow to respond to the BP spill.
Governor Perdue can’t make the mistake of believing that her press conference solved her Patrol problem. She may have exacerbated it by declaring she had never intervened in promotions. She can expect the N&O to dig into whether that’s true.
This story isn't going away. She has to put it away.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 15, 2010 10:28
A veteran Democratic politico asked me this week: “Are you feeling as bad about this coming election as I am?”
“The Republican Party, meanwhile, has raised more than $1 million since January 2009 to Democrats' $649,000, though the Democratic Party raised slightly more than Republicans in the second quarter of 2010.”
If Republicans are outraising Democrats 3-to-2 – or outraising them at all – this could be a very bad year.
The picture is more complex, of course. Democrats have more money on hand. The party has other money it can use.
But, until Election Day, there are only two ways to keep score in politics: polls and fundraising. The score right now should concern Democrats.
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Carter Wrenn posted on July 14, 2010 17:36
The Right Honorable (and Colorful) Reverend William Barber (head of the local NAACP) has laid the political birch-wood to the Italians on the School Board again; the Reverend Barber, who’s been holding demonstrations and protests lampooning the Italians, climbed up on his soap-box at his latest protest and announced the Italians are taking Raleigh back to the 1950’s and the age of segregated water fountains.
That so inspired the Reverend Barber’s friend Reverend Mendez that he hopped up and said he agreed with Barber and it was clear what the demonstrators were fighting was something just plumb “extremely evil.”
Reverend Mendez didn’t bother to explain why the Italians are extremely evil (as opposed to just wrong-headed) except to say they are ‘divisive’ – which is how the School Board must feel about Reverend Barber.
Next the prospect of battling the evil Italians got Reverend Barber’s aide-de-camp Reverend Chip Gateward (who last week called Italian School Board Chairman Ron Margiotta a “white racist”) so worked up he stood up waving a sign showing black and white water fountains and waxed eloquent saying there’s no way, no how, he’s sitting still while the Italian turn back the clock to the days of Jim Crow.
Finally the Reverend Michael Hunn – speaking on behalf of 50,000 Episcopalians – got up and explained how the story of the Good Samaritan and virtues of the ‘diversity’ (the former School Board’s policy that leads to busing which the Italians are ending) are the same.
Why that’s so wasn’t clear either.
As I get older I’m thinking a lot of politics is just plain social. An excuse for folks to get together. And that the brouhaha between the Reverends and the Italians is a good example. Of course, both sides wrap themselves up in ideology and talk about sacred causes and how they’re battling to save their version of Western Civilization – and, no doubt that is one reason folks are holding demonstrations. But I’m beginning to think the greater reason may be they simply enjoy getting together. At least, one thing is clear: The three Reverends are having the time of their lives demonstrating and protesting and calling their enemies evil.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 14, 2010 10:25
Ever since Governor Perdue’s brief honeymoon ended, public polls have brought her nothing but bad news. So her advisers not surprisingly found a silver lining in Public Policy Polling’s numbers on her and the Highway Patrol.
But don’t get carried away.
Last week’s poll found that 67 percent of North Carolinians have a favorable opinion of the Patrol. But what would they say if the question were: “Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Perdue’s handling of problems in the Highway Patrol?”
Still, Perdue’s own numbers are ticking up. Her ratings were 33 approve (up from 24 last fall), 47 disapprove. That’s a net negative of 14 – better than the net negative of 30 last July.
Most of her gains have been with her Democratic base, which was mad at her at the end of last year’s legislature. This year’s session was better.
Still, she faces a tough road to reelection. Maybe the most crucial numbers for her are President Obama’s approval ratings.
Without Obama on the ballot – and the surge of voters he created – Perdue may not have won in 2008. She needs him to run strong in 2012.
She also needs Republicans to screw up. And they might – especially if they get control of one or both legislative chambers.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 13, 2010 10:03
Democrats are worried about losing the State Senate this year – especially without Tony Rand to run their caucus campaigns.
After Democrats came within one seat of losing the Senate in 1994, Rand and Marc Basnight build a high-performance operation. They hired good people, did good polling and spent money based on cold-eyed calculations – not friendships.
Insiders say Rand was the decision-maker. He made the campaign machinery run, just like he made the legislative machinery run.
The climate is tough enough for Democrats this year – nationally and in the state. It’s no team for a team to be without a manager.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 12, 2010 10:25
According to a recent N&O headline, “Burr says oil ads won't ruffle feathers.”
Senator Burr has to say that. I doubt he believes it.
Two years ago, Elizabeth Dole’s campaign didn’t worry about independent ads attacking her. That’s why she’s former Senator Dole today.
The latest ad attacking Burr – showing an oil-soaked “Burr” being pulled out of the ocean – has the same touch as the rocking-chair ads that did in Dole. It’s funny, memorable and pointed.
Elaine Marshall will need a lot of those ads to beat Burr. And look for Burr to start spending some of his campaign stash soon – to inoculate himself and to attack Marshall.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 09, 2010 10:16
John Davis, late of NCFREE has an interesting take (one I like, obviously) on Jim Hunt in his recent report.
Davis says the Republican Party in North Carolina has failed to produce a political leader as skilled as Hunt. He identifies Hunt’s key strengths as pragmatism and persuasiveness.
Davis recounts his meeting with Hunt in 1985, when the just-out-of-office former governor went on and on and education reform:
“A half-hour later, the conversation had not wavered from the topic of education reform. That’s when the thought occurred to me, ‘Damn, he really believes this stuff!’”
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Gary Pearce posted on July 08, 2010 09:43
Governor Perdue’s Highway Patrol news conference was better than it read. You can watch the whole thing here.
But she better hope her tough talk solves the Patrol’s problems. Because it obviously didn’t solve her media – and political – problems.
It’s never good when the Page 1 photos are of you, hands on hips, looking angry and of your press person cutting off questions.
The end wasn’t as abrupt as it seemed. By my count, Glover had answered five questions when Chrissy Pearson put her hand over the mike.
But Perdue and Colonel Glover made the classic mistake of blaming the media for reporting only the bad and not the good.
“It gets magnified in the media,” Glover said of the Patrol’s scandals.
Maybe BP should try that: “If the media didn’t harp on this spill, people wouldn’t be upset about it.”
The Governor also made one of those statements that in effect dared the media to prove her wrong: “I’ve never intervened in promotions.”
Her fundamental problem is that the media is suspicious of her friendship with Glover.
She told the press conference that, according to her staff, there were “audible gasps. People were stunned” when she laid down the law to the Patrol members.
But the media didn’t seem so impressed. So she and Glover are going to stay under the radar gun.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 07, 2010 09:46
It’s Reporter Versus Reporter. UNC-TV versus UNC Radio. And the best drama of the legislative session.
Senator Fletcher Hartsell’s inspired idea to subpoena UNC-TV’s unaired Alcoa story stirred up great mischief. It:
- Put Alcoa in an unwelcome spotlight
- Put UNC-TV in an unwelcome spotlight
- Put a UNC radio reporter at odds with a UNC-TV.
“Vajda claimed in her affidavit that she has decided to cooperate ‘without waiving my right to exercise my journalist’s privilege.’ That’s like deciding to have a car wreck without waiving your good driver’s discount. You can’t have it both ways.”
Then Leslie zeroed in on Vajda’s bosses at the station:
“I'm still wondering how half-hour segments on local golf clubs, botanical gardens, and the AndyGriffithMuseum rated higher on UNC-TV's priority list than allegations of contamination in one of NC's most popular lakes. The station had the resources to air all those segments in May, but nothing on Alcoa. So help me out here.”
Plus, Leslie blasted UNC-TV for “(rolling) over in record time with barely a whimper” to the subpoena.
This year’s Press Corps Follies should be interesting.
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Gary Pearce posted on July 06, 2010 14:07
I heard that Jim Goodmon of WRAL was so incensed by the legislative subpoena of WUNC-TV that he called Erskine Bowles – and urged him to fight it.
Of course, given the just-completed state budget, UNC was in no position to defy the legislature.
Both UNC-TV and the First Amendment probably will survive.
But the flap dramatizes the tension between UNC-TV’s status as a tax-paid institution – and part of the public university system – and its news operation.
I wonder what PBS would do if Congress subpoenaed one of its unaired stories.
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