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Entries for 'Carter Wrenn'

29
Thom Tillis said Kay Hagan voted for Obama’s Stimulus Bill then her husband’s company got $390,000 in Stimulus Funds as a pay-off. And Hagan fired back Tillis (as Speaker) put a toll road near Charlotte in exchange for $25,000 in campaign contributions and sold three seats on the UNC Board of Governors for $75,000 in donations to his SuperPac.
 
Imagine being an Undecided Independent voter.
 
You don’t like Tillis or Hagan. You’d love to vote against both. But you have to choose one. And a week before the election, you turn on the TV and hear him saying ‘she’s a crook’ and her saying ‘he’s a bigger crook.’
 
How do you decide? Flip a coin?

 

 

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29
A pollster will usually ask voters: Would you say you 1) Always vote Democratic, 2) Usually vote Democratic, 3) Always vote Republican, 4) Usually vote Republican or 5) would you say you split your ticket and vote for about as many Republicans as Democrats?
 
Down at the Editorial Board (not in the news room) at the News and Observer the boys have gone 5 for 5 in the local Congressional Races – picking five Democrats and not a single Republican.  
 
They also went 4 for 4 in the County Commissioners races – picking 4 Democrats.  
 
And they endorsed Lorrin Freeman, the Democrat in the District Attorney’s race.
 
Then they went 12 of 12 – endorsing 12 Democrats in the State House races.
 
They did endorse one Republican – Sheriff Donnie Harrison – in a backhanded way, spending most of their editorial explaining what Donnie had done wrong and praising his opponent.
 
At any rate, one thing’s clear: Whoever’s doing the picking down at the N&O Editorial Board isn’t a ticket splitter.

 

 

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28
Eric pointed to the word ‘backlash’ and said, They put a picture of a Black minister, sneering, beneath a headline saying ‘backlash’ then quote the ACLU as saying Black preachers want to punish gay people because of who they love.
 
A trio of amenable grunts rose from the end of the table then out of pure mischief Conor said, You got an objection to the ACLU saying those Black preachers want to punish gays? and Eric said, Mata Hari, and Conor frowned,  You see a connection between Mata Hari and a Black preacher in Fayetteville?
 
Eric pointed to the photograph of the preacher. The way he sees it a man and woman stand up in his church and say ‘I do’ then the sacrament goes to work joining their souls – and he can see one other thing too: That doesn’t happen with a mother’s love or brother’s love or when Mata Hari diddles a married French Count and he’s sure not going to sit still and let a federal judge tell him he’s wrong because he doesn’t see two gays in love as a marriage.
 
Conor opened his mouth to argue the preacher had confused matrimony and Holy Matrimony but right then on the wall behind Eric’s shoulder two politicians came on television waving their arms one saying Attorney General Roy Cooper was dead-right to stand up for gay marriage and the other saying Cooper was a no good varmint.
 
Conor laid both arms on the table. Forgetting Mata Hari for a moment, would you agree neither of those two boys is practicing any kind of love at all.


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28

Kaci Hickox was mad as hops – she’d gotten off the plane in Newark, been hustled straight into quarantine, and three days later she was still in quarantine only by then she’d hired a lawyer to sue Governor Chris Christie.

A few days before Ms. Hickox flew from Sierra Leone to Newark, a doctor, who’d come home to New York after treating Ebola patients in Guinea, came down with Ebola – and Governors Andrew Cuomo and Chris Christie promptly ordered medical workers returning from West Africa to be quarantined.
 
Ms. Hichox landed in Newark about an hour later. And, by nightfall, the Obama Administration was criticizing Cuomo and Christie for the quarantines.
 
Back in 1952 there were 57,000 cases of polio: 3,000 people died and another 21,000 were paralyzed and we declared a war on polio.  In 1955, Jonas Salk invented the Salk vaccine and in 1961 there were 161 cases of polio.
 
Now we need to declare war on Ebola – instead of denouncing quarantines.
 
A person gets the Ebola virus by coming in contact with a sick person. The virus then incubates for up to 3 weeks and at some point, during that time, the person starts showing symptoms of the disease. From the moment that happens, anyone who comes in contact with them can also be infected.
 
According to the Administration that’s not a problem because, as soon as someone shows symptoms, they’ll voluntarily check into a hospital. But that didn’t happen when a nurse with a fever, who’d treated an Ebola patient, boarded an airplane and flew to Cleveland – with the CDC’s approval.
 
And it didn’t happen with the doctor in New York City – according to the officials, after the first symptoms appeared he spent the evening in a bowling alley.
 
Maybe it’s unlikely someone who’s had contact with an Ebola patient will infect other people, but quarantining them for 21 days avoids that risk which is what Governor Christie decided to do.
 
Quarantines won’t cure Ebola but they can slow it down and give the next Jonas Salk time to find a vaccine.

 

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27
As bleak as Governor McCrory’s job approval numbers were in the WRAL poll, that wasn’t the worst news. Consider how Republicans, Democrats and Independents feel about the General Assembly.
                                   
                                             Republican Voters
                                             Approve 35%
                                             Disapprove 38%
 
                                             Conservative Voters
                                             Approve 33%
                                             Disapprove 37%
 
                                             Independent Voters
                                             Approve 20%
                                             Disapprove 54%
 
Now I can imagine Republican leaders over in the legislature pooh-poohing and saying,  Ah, well, that doesn’t really matter. We drew the districts.
 
But how long can a Republican state legislator in any district remain safe if Republicans and Conservatives think he’s doing a poor job?
 
Four years ago, Republicans won a majority in the General Assembly because voters were angry at Obama. Back then, two numbers ran through polls like plum-lines: Two-thirds of the Independents disapproved of the President – and almost to a man they voted Republican down the line. The correlation between the President’s job disapproval and the Republican vote was nearly absolute.
 
Which, after the election, led to a miscalculation: Human nature being what it is Republicans, naturally, figured the real reason they’d won was because voters had discovered their virtues, seen the light, converted to the true faith and agreed with Republicans down the line on issues from tax reform to education spending.
 
Next, naturally, as soon as they were sworn in Republicans started passing bills but before you, say, tell a senior citizen you’re going to start taxing his prescription drugs (as a part of tax reform) you have to explain to him pretty clearly why that’s a good idea and how he’s going to be better off in the long run – because if you don’t you may end up with approval rating of 23%.
 
When Reverend William Barber and his Moral Monday cohorts starting telling voters Republicans hated children and women and old people and dogs and cats, silence wasn’t the answer. Republican leaders needed to stand up, sound off, and make their case explaining why Reverend Barber was dead-wrong.
 
But that never happened. And it won’t happen before November 4th.  So the next question is simple: How do Republican legislators turn those numbers around before the next election?
 

 

 

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24
 
 
36% Approve
46% Disapprove
 
The WRAL Poll painted a bleak picture  of a Governor caught between a rock and a hard place.  As Mark Binker wrote, only a little over a third of the voters approve of the job Governor McCrory is doing.
 
But worse news lurked beneath the surface.
 
These days you see polarized groups of voters everywhere. Left, right, up, down, Republican, Democrat; everyone is mad at someone and can’t wait to vote ‘em out of office: Republicans don’t like Obama so they’re voting against Kay Hagan. Democrats don’t like the state legislature so they’re voting against Thom Tillis.
 
But, buried in the crosstabs of WRAL’s poll, two pitfalls lie in wait for Pat McCrory. Consider the Governor’s job approval rating among Republicans:

    Approve 64%
    Disapprove 22%
 
Almost a quarter of the Republicans believe Governor McCrory is doing a poor job. That doesn’t mean they won’t vote for him but whoever heard of a Republican winning a statewide election without winning 90% plus of the Republican vote.
 
One last statistic: The Governor needs half the Independents vote for him to win. Here’re the numbers:
  
Independent Voters
Pat McCrory Approve: 33%
Pat McCrory Disapprove: 46%

 

 

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24
Headline (two weeks ago): Thom Tillis on Life Support. Campaign Dying. 
 
Headline (this week): Tillis Makes Miraculous Recovery. Campaign Surging.
 
Now, as a storyline, that’s just about unbeatable. It’s like Lazarus rising from the dead.
 
The problem is two months ago, two weeks ago, and today (in WRAL’s latest poll), Thom Tillis has trailed Kay Hagan by the same number – 3 points. He hasn’t moved.
 
He wasn’t dead then and he’s not resurrected now which brings me to a terrible devilment: Temptation. And reporters love of a good story.
 
Tillis Dying was pure melodrama and the press (especially the Washington press) bought the story hook, line and sinker.
 
Then the press needed a new story and temptation bit again. Tillis Makes Miraculous Recovery was even greater melodrama. And it beat writing: No Change in Election. Nothing new. Or explaining: Election Mystery: Undecided Voters Dislike Both Tillis and Hagan. Who will they Choose?

 

 

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23
I watched the ‘empty chair’ debate too (see Gary’s blog below).
 
And it brought back old memories. Of old foibles.
           
Years ago, in 1980, when John East ran against Robert Morgan he challenged Senator Morgan to a debate. And challenged Morgan to debate. And challenged Morgan to debate.
 
And Morgan said No, No and No.
 
So we had a great idea – we’d do an ad with John East debating an empty chair.
 
The other night Time Warner Cable TV did the same thing – held a debate with Thom Tillis and an empty chair (because Kay Hagan didn’t show up).
 
Which brings me back to what happened to John East 34 years ago.
 
We ran our great ad from Manteo to Murphy, blanketed the airwaves – then polled and nothing had changed.
 
No one cared.

 

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17
You have to give Kay Hagan credit: A year ago the Swing Voters were ready to roll down the track and vote her out of office – and for a year Hagan kept those voters out of Thom Tillis’ camp.
 
The one big change in the Senate race – Tillis’ rising unpopularity with Independents – was all Kay Hagan’s doing.
 
On the other hand, Hagan had problems of her own: She’d been sitting at 43% or 44% or 45% of the vote for months. She’d kept Tillis from moving up. But she hadn’t moved up either. She was just as stuck as Tillis. Only in a different way.
 
The other day I had a repairman in the office and he said, You’re in politics?
 
I said, I’m afraid I have to plead guilty to that.
 
And he said, You know, we’re in a mess. We’re headed for a war and we ain’t got a leader in sight.
 
He meant ISIS.
 
And, maybe, that’s what’s going to tip the scales in the Senate race – a threat no one even knew existed six months ago may provide the impetus that moves Independent voters to support either Hagan or Tillis.
 
Of course, there could be other wild cards too.
 
Ebola.
 
Obama’s popularity dropping.
 
Or either Hagan or Tillis stumbling.
 
Any one of those events could tip the scales.

 

 

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16
After Hagan’s first round of attacks calling Tillis a Tea Partier, a few Swing Voters decided to vote for Hagan, a few decided to vote for Tillis, but most stayed Undecided. Ambivalently Undecided. They didn’t want to vote for Obama-Hagan. But they didn’t want to vote for Tillis either.
 
The bad news for Tillis was Hagan, by driving up his ‘negatives,’ had put him in a corner. The good news was Tillis had time to get out.
 
But then, suddenly, Hagan changed directions.
 
A year ago when the Moral Monday demonstrators descended on Raleigh it was a little like a circus – but it was a circus that got lots of press. Mountains of press. And the protestors’ message was simple.
 
Republicans in the legislature, they said, were against education. And teachers. And women. And children. And the poor, sick and infirmed.
 
Over and over they said Republicans had cut spending on public schools.
 
Now, that wasn’t quite so.
 
The Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction, June Atkinson, had proposed a budget that said legislators should increase spending on education hundreds of millions of dollars and, in fact, Republicans cut that proposed increase by $500 million.
 
But that wasn’t exactly a hard cut that meant the state would spend $500 million less on education than the year before.
 
In fact, since Republicans won a majority in the legislature in 2011 they’ve increased education spending a total of a billion dollars – or 14% – and even when you factor in the costs of increased enrollment and inflation spending on education has still increased 3%.
 
Republicans didn’t increase spending as much as Democrats like June Atkinson wanted – but there was no staggering $500 million cut.
 
The problem (for Tillis) was a year ago when the  Moral Monday demonstrators charged Republicans had cut spending, no chorus of Republican voices had answered, Wait a minute. That’s not so.  Instead, for a year, voters heard Democrats saying Republicans had cut education and when they didn’t hear a contrary word from Republicans they just, naturally, figured it must be so.
 
For Republican legislators in ‘safe seats’ that didn’t matter much but Thom Tillis wasn’t running in a safe seat – he was running statewide and as soon as Kay Hagan finished telling Swing Voters Tillis was a Koch-Brothers-Tea-Partier the next words out of her mouth were he’d cut education spending $500 million.
 
A month later Tillis was still stuck in a corner – Independents were still looking at Hagan-Obama and saying, I don’t want to vote for her. But they were also looking at Tillis and saying, I don’t want to vote for him either.
 
To be continued …

 

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