posted on March 28, 2007 11:29
Conventional Wisdom says the 2008 Presidential nominations will be decided by money. Especially with a de facto nationwide primary looming in early February.
CW (that’s “conventional wisdom,” not Carter Wrenn) says a campaign will have to raise $100 million this year to be viable next year.
CW says this Saturday, March 31, is a critical campaign threshold. A campaign has to report a big number raised this quarter to be taken seriously.
I say CW has an uncanny way of being wrong – especially about presidential contests. And it may be wrong here.
Consider an alternative scenario. Consider the information-flooded world we live in. Cable and bloggers running 24/7. Campaigns scrambling to master every new nuance of message and communications.
For the information-hungry, it’s a feast. Even for the information-resistant, it’s impossible to avoid.
Look at how John McCain’s campaign has faltered and Rudy Giuliani’s has flourished in the media circus.
Look at how pervasive coverage has been of Elizabeth Edwards’ cancer and John Edwards’ continuing candidacy.
In most campaigns, paid media is all-powerful. That’s because relatively few people are exposed to news coverage in Governors’ and Senate races.
But that’s not the case in presidential races. Information is so overwhelming – and people’s interest so much higher – that paid media may not be as powerful.
CW says the prospect of a Super-Duper National Tuesday schedule of 20-plus state primaries February 5 will make money the overwhelming factor.
Maybe not. A nationwide media tsunami could overwhelm big money. If a candidate catches that tide, there may not be enough money to stop him or her.
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