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NC FREE Executive Director John Davis, like a lot of prognosticators, says this will be a Democratic year.  HHHe also raises hopes there will be many more Democratic years.

I heard Davis give a presentation in Wilmington this week, and I got some ideas and information from him I haven’t heard anyplace else.

About this year, he said:

  • The War is The Issue.  And Republicans can’t escape it.
  • The U.S. House will go Democratic.
  • The N.C. House will stay Democratic despite Speaker Black’s troubles (as Carter quoted him in an earlier post) and so will the Senate.
  • Heath Shuler will beat Charles Taylor, but Robin Hayes will hang on against Larry Kissel.
  • The next legislature will be more progressive and less business-friendly.

No great surprises there.  But his observations about the future were intriguing:

  • As North Carolina continues to urbanize (and eventually become the 7th-biggest state), it will become a battleground state in Presidential races.  We’ll be bigger than Ohio.
  • The state’s population is exploding because Republicans are moving here.
  • But they’re moderate, “pro-government” Republicans – not Jesse Helms Republicans.
  • That will put North Carolina in play again for a Democratic presidential candidate – and presumably break the Republican lock on U.S. Senate races here.

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Jim Stegall
# Jim Stegall
Friday, November 03, 2006 4:33 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Larry Kissel actually wins here in the Eighth District. It would be a tragedy, as few candidates so un-qualified as he have ever made it that far, but from the looks of things it is at least a possibility.

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