Jim Black: Dodging Hand Grenades

Carter Wrenn posted on October 27, 2006 10:17

In an odd sort of way it’s a tribute to House Speaker Jim Black that after the Video Poker scandal, the Optometrists scandal, the Lottery scandal and Representative Mike Decker’s bribery conviction, he has survived. But, in fact, the Speaker has more than survived. He has retained power without a single serious challenge.

Kevin Geddings said at his trial that he “disclosed his ties to Scientific Games to Black” the night before he was appointed. But Black insists that’s not so and House Democrats have continued to support him overwhelmingly, though, at last, some Democrats seem to be wondering how much longer Black can go on dodging hand grenades.

After Geddings’ conviction, former Speaker Joe Mavretic told the Charlotte Observer (10-13-06), “The oven’s getting hotter.” And Former Democratic legislator Bob Hensley added he thought former-Representative Michael Decker’s sentencing (for taking a $50,000 bribe) could also “lead to trouble for the Speaker.”

It seems more than possible, given the national trends, Democrats may retain control of the State House. But if they do, will they re-elect Jim Black Speaker? Black is an adroit master of the inside politics of the legislature. He has emerged victorious on dozens of hard-fought issues. But will he be able to pull the hat trick again? Or will he survive the election, and, maybe, the prosecutors – only to lose the support of his own caucus?

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Posted in: General, North Carolina - Democrats

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# Seeds

Saturday, October 28, 2006 5:05 AM

Much is said about how adept Jim Black is at avoiding the sword over all of these scandals. This has been true over the years and not just now. He is probably only beat in this game by North Carolina's most powerful politician Mark Basnight. That said a survival by Jim Black in this election may actually bear very badly for the Democrats.

Assume that Black wins the election and returns to the State House. Then, as many well connected think, he is indicted. If reelected speaker, another likley scenario given the fear of his power by Democrats, then we have a Speaker of the House indicted and more than likely forced to resign. Taking this a step further he is then convicted, not unlikely since the conviction rate in these matters is 100% so far. This scenario will probably result in the loss of a majority in 2008. While the Yellow Dog Democrats, who continue to support the party out of tradition and favors, will not change but the population in the state is increasingly comprised of new residents who do not share the old tradition and loyalty to the party.

The problem the Democrats have is that Republicans now win the majority of the vote and elect Republican Presidents and a mjority of Republican Federal officials. Continued corruption will cause the electorate to rebel in disgust and give the Republicans a majority in time to redistrict in 2010. The gerrymandered districts that kep the Democrats in power will go away and generations of the starnglehold in state poltics will vanish with the "New North Carolina".

For these reasons the Democrats would be better off in the long run to defeat Jim Black and be able to tell the electorate that they cleaned house at the ballott box. The other side of that coin is whether they are already too late. By Black making to November have they already lost that moral high ground? Would a Black election victory and then a defeat as speaker help them regain some moral high ground? The Demorats have a problem and that problem is Jim Black. The question is can they survive the problem in the long term? We also know that the African American community is becoming more dissatisfied with the Democrats, bas they must keep to win, but that is another story.

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