posted on September 01, 2006 10:36
Election forecasts are less reliable than hurricane forecasts. But Democrats have realistic chances to take control of both the House and Senate in Washington.
If they do, the political world will be turned upside down:
- George Bush can look ahead to two years of total political irrelevancy;
- Democrats in Congress will put forward a raft of far-reaching bills – and challenge Bush to veto them;
Corporate America will be on the defensive
Democratic presidential wanna-be’s will be even more aggressive, and there may be a real twist in the race: Hillary Clinton might decide her future lies in being a Senate powerhouse – even Majority Leader – for the next 20 years, rather than making a risky run for President;
- And Hillary might endorse John Edwards for President.
A series of Zogby polls give Democrats hope of taking the Senate. Zogby says:
The online polls of Senate and gubernatorial races in 26 states find Democrats with an edge in several contests, including Pennsylvania and Ohio, where two–term Republican incumbents Rick Santorum and Mike DeWine continue to trail their Democratic challengers, while Democrats in New Jersey and Michigan are battling against surprisingly strong GOP challengers.
Complicating matters for Republicans, though, is sudden vulnerability on the part of Virginia Sen. George Allen. The Old Dominion Republican, who led Democrat Jim Webb by a comfortable margin a month ago now trails by one point, following remarks he made that some considered racially insensitive.
In other states:
Joe Lieberman leads Ned Lamont by 10 points in Connecticut;
- In Missouri, Republican incumbent Jim Talent leads Democrat Claire McCaskill by five points.
- In Pennsylvania, Santorum trails Bob Casey by nine points;
- DeWine trails Democrat Sherrod Brown by eight points in Ohio.
Also troubling for Republicans is the large number of close contests, including a surprisingly strong showing by Nevada Democrat Jack Carter, son of the former president, who now only trails Republican incumbent John Ensign by three points. And in Tennessee, Republican nominee Bob Corker holds onto a tenuous four-point lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. in the race to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
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