Gary Pearce posted on October 19, 2012 09:41
National polls on the presidential race get a lot of media play, but they really tell us nothing about the race. This week, in fact, Obama adviser David Plouffe said the campaign doesn’t do any national polls.
Why should they? The national popular vote doesn’t matter. Electoral votes matter. You can get 51 percent of the national popular vote, but get just 260 electoral votes and lose the election.
Instead of national polls, the campaigns spend heavily on – and avidly track – daily polls in the handful of swing states, like North Carolina.
They don’t care if Obama wins New York or California by 5 or 10 points – or if Romney wins Wyoming or Utah by 10 or 20 points.
Here’s a lesson I learned from being in campaigns: If you’re not inside HQ and seeing reliable, scientific polling, you don’t know what’s really happening with the voters.
On the outside, you’re seeing a plethora of polls – some good, some not so good. It’s not that pollsters are cooking the numbers. It’s that the media outlets or other sponsors paying for the polls want to hold down the cost.
In a campaign – a good campaign – you’re happy to pay more for good data. Because your fate depends on it. Bad data means bad strategic decisions.
So don’t panic – or celebrate – when a national poll looks bad or good for your candidate. Keep your eye on the ball. And hope that your candidate’s campaign is doing the same.