posted on October 19, 2012 09:41
National polls on the presidential race get a lot of media play, but they really tell us nothing about the race. This week, in fact, Obama adviser David Plouffe said the campaign doesn’t do any national polls.
Why should they? The national popular vote doesn’t matter. Electoral votes matter. You can get 51 percent of the national popular vote, but get just 260 electoral votes and lose the election.
Instead of national polls, the campaigns spend heavily on – and avidly track – daily polls in the handful of swing states, like North Carolina.
They don’t care if Obama wins New York or California by 5 or 10 points – or if Romney wins Wyoming or Utah by 10 or 20 points.
Here’s a lesson I learned from being in campaigns: If you’re not inside HQ and seeing reliable, scientific polling, you don’t know what’s really happening with the voters.
On the outside, you’re seeing a plethora of polls – some good, some not so good. It’s not that pollsters are cooking the numbers. It’s that the media outlets or other sponsors paying for the polls want to hold down the cost.
In a campaign – a good campaign – you’re happy to pay more for good data. Because your fate depends on it. Bad data means bad strategic decisions.
So don’t panic – or celebrate – when a national poll looks bad or good for your candidate. Keep your eye on the ball. And hope that your candidate’s campaign is doing the same.
Friday, October 19, 2012 7:00 PM
What you've said is mostly true, Gary. The important polling data is in states, not nationally. I mean, Obama will win a H U G E number of votes in California which is by far the most liberal state in the union with very little control over who is legally voting. But, regardless how big a win he gets there, he's only gonna get so many electoral votes. I'm a believer that it's not the Californias and Texas's that will win this thing. It will be Ohio and NC and Florida and Virginia. And, right now, Obama is shakey in the polling data I've seen in those..TODAY. When a liberal/progressive pundit such as yourself, Gary, starts arguing that there is "more to polls than meets the eye" when his candidate is losing or suspect in some important polls...that says a lot. I'm actually elated at your presentation here. I think you're worried.....as you well should be. I do think, however, that we're going to see some extremely dirty, nasty and downright legally questionable actions by the Obama campaign as we get closer to November 6th if the polls in various states continue as they are now.
Saturday, October 20, 2012 7:51 AM
Local editor states we do not have enough income to pay off the debt.
Total National Income=14,000B
A 50% Tax Rate on Total Income=7000B
A surplus of 3200B or pay off debt in 5 years
Saturday, October 20, 2012 12:42 PM
Sunday, October 21, 2012 8:53 AM
INEQUALITY YES expanded repeat but oh oh so important for the Middle Class
OECD rank--4th on inequality--3rd as Least Taxed--2nd as Least tax on corporations
Reagan began redistribution upwards with his 60% tax cut for top incomes.
Ask any friend to guess how much we pay in federal-state-local taxes as a percent of gdp.
No one I asked ever said under 50%. It is 27%. 27%.
In Fiscal 2012 federal tax revenue was 2450Billion. We borrowed 1100 Billion.
Our national income is 14,000 Billion. 2450 is a Tax Rate of 17.6%
Since 1980, we borrowed 15,000 Billion which let the rich off the hook to retain and grow their wealth.
They pay most of individual income tax but little of income in payroll tax. The big question is how much of Total Income do they pay not the Adjusted Gross Income which has their deductions.
Mitt Romney is proposing a 20% tax cut which means more borrowing like Bush who gave top 5% 48% of his tax cuts and borrowed 6100 Billion(5800 on 9-30-1 to 11.900 on 9-30-09) or doubled our debt in 8 years.
We have the Income to balance our budget but we must tax the top10% to do it.
Clarence Swinney political historian Lifeaholics of America --burlington nc
author-Lifeaholic—Success by working for a Life not just a Living.
Monday, October 22, 2012 10:11 AM
Try blaming Bush Cheney Neo-con Cohorts
That group incresed spending 90% (Obama will 8.6%)--Debt 112% (double in 8)--1400B Deficit--
Lowest job creation since Hoover 31,000 per month to Carter 218,000--Clinton 237,000
Let Wall Street run wild Gamblimg and selling toxic mortgages. Great Recession. Paul Kriugman had been writing Bush since 2002 in NYT articles. He posted them in a book.
Awesome warnings on Housing inflation and Casino Derivative Of America one on one gambling
instead of investing in businesses
Two uncalled for wars.
Imperialism and Debt is what ruined Rome-Spain-Holland-England
Bush tried hard to ruin America. Facts are undeniable.
Blame obama. Not for economy. He inherited Hell On Earth.
Monday, October 22, 2012 11:50 AM
ROMNEY LOVES BORROWING
He wants to cut taxes—from 38% top to 28%--eliminate the estate tax where one family has more wealth than 90% of families—keep capital gains at 15%--where 25 Hedge Fund managers made 22 Billion in 2010—and paid little if any Payroll Tax—paid a 15% individual income tax—offset loss of revenue by closing loopholes---Ha! Each loophole has a proponent—increase military spending—800 bases worldwide-Infrastructure in shambles—pursue free trade agreements to ship jobs overseas—58,000 plants closed in last decade—how many opened in China---we must demand better self serving policies—Tariff imports—High 1945-1980 type tax rates---middle class has been hurt badly—60% of jobs once had pensions now it is 20%--protect safety nets which have served us so well---
Mitt Romney is a rich mans candidate and will attempt to change safety nets to enrich the rich
who gained so much wealth since 1980. Since 1980, we borrowed $15,000 Billion instead of taxing to pay our way. Richest nation with a national income of $14,000 Billion will not tax to balance its budget but in 2011 borrowed 1100B while the rich just got much richer.
MITT SCARES ME TO TEARS
Tuesday, October 23, 2012 7:03 AM
TAX & SPEND
SPEND & BORROW
Two entirely different fiscal ideologies
1945-1980 we taxed wealth to pay down wwii debt
1980-2009 we cut taxes and went on borrow binge that
allowed wealth to pay less in taxes
Reagan cut top rate 60% and increased spending
by 80% and debt by 189%
Bush cut taxes and increased spending by 90% and debt by 112%
or “doubled” after 225 years.
Tax & Spend=Pay Your Way
Spend & Borrow=kids pay tomorrow