Friday, April 27, 2012 10:46 AM
Obama rode a perfect storm on election day, 2008, to a razor-thin victory in North Carolina. There is no foreseable chain of events that could allow the Obama campaign to generate that much support here this time. He's consistently polling under 50% in the state (a very bad sign for an incumbent) and has a three-plus year record of failure and economic malaise to drag like a millstone around the campaign trail. He will have to be very, very lucky to carry the state this time, and even if he does he will have no coattails whatsoever.
McCrory begins this race with enormous advantages, and that's not even taking the money into account. He's far better known state-wide than either Crazy Bob or Wallpaper Wally (we can forget about Creepy Bill, he's no longer a factor), he's genuinely popular with a large base of voters, and the incumbent governor's poor performance has seriously tainted the party brand for that office. He's exactly what people in North Carolina will be looking for this cycle, a pro-business moderate with a track record of getting things done, and not a hint of scandal.
Now toss that $3.1 million (it will actually be much more than that by May 9th) into the equation and do the math again. There's no such thing in politics as a sure thing, but this comes pretty darn close.