posted on September 28, 2011 09:33
If history is any guide, Mitt Romney will win the Republican presidential nomination.
For some reason, Republicans nominate presidential candidates who ran unsuccessfully before – like Romney this year. See Ronald Reagan (the GOP gold standard) in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996 and John McCain in 2008. The exception, George W. Bush, really isn’t an exception; he was a sequel: The Return of Bush.
Maybe it’s a hierarchical thing: the last loser deserves the laurel. More likely, it’s that losers learn from their mistakes and work hard to get better. Last time, Romney was too stiff and a poor debater. This time, he has does a passable imitation of a real human being, and he’s sharper in debates.
Typically, too, first-time Republican candidates underestimate how tough a presidential campaign is. Rick Perry is finding that it’s different from Texas.
Democrats are the opposite. We love first-timers: JFK in 1960, McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1976, Clinton in 1992 and Obama in 2008. Otherwise, we like former Vice Presidents like Humphrey, Mondale and Gore.
Maybe there’s something in the different DNA of Democrats and Republicans. Democrats love something new, while Republicans stick with the tried and true.