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Gary Pearce posted on February 08, 2010 09:05
Republicans have reason to be confident as filing opens for the 2010 elections. But I’m yet to be convinced this will be another 1994.
That year, Democrats – in Raleigh and Washington – were supremely overconfident, all the way to Election Day.
Not a problem this time.
Still, the cycle favors Republicans. Democrats have won big in the last two elections, so a change is due.
Also, Independents – the unorganized third party nationally and in North Carolina – tilt Republican. They’re unhappy, and they’ll probably take it out on the Ins.
But there are hopeful signs for Democrats.
President Obama is back in campaign mode. He challenged Republicans to a televised debate, in effect, on health care. Don’t underestimate him.
Statewide, while the cycle favors Republicans in the legislature, the money and the relative quality of the parties’ campaign teams favor Democrats. But will corporate money change that?
Locally, schools will dominate the Wake commissioners’ races, and the school board seems hell-bent on imposing its agenda, regardless of what parents said in the recent survey. That’s a sure-fire way to go over the cliff. Plus, three Republican incumbents are up this year, and only one Democrat.
On today’s money, I’d bet on Republican gains, but no replay of the ’94 revolution. And WakeCounty could be the outlier that goes Democratic.
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