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Carter Wrenn posted on December 28, 2009 11:04
There’s been a lot of back and forth about new polls in the Senate Race. For instance, The Civitas Institute poll has Senator Richard Burr up:
· Richard Burr 40%
· Elaine Marshall 32%
· Undecided 28%
Some folks are saying this is good news for Burr but it looks to me like the news here isn’t that Burr is now leading by 8% – it’s that after five years in office he only has 40% of the vote.
I remember back in 1992 when Lauch Faircloth ran against Terry Sanford we took a poll and Lauch was way behind with something like 40% of the voters undecided and I said, That doesn’t look too good, and the pollster said, It’s not as bad as it seems, as a rule of thumb 2/3rds of those undecided voters will vote for Faircloth.
His point was every one of those undecided voters knew Sanford and were looking for an alternative – but hadn’t heard of Faircloth, yet. So, in the latest round of polls either they know Burr and are looking for an alternative or, worse, after five years in office Burr hasn’t done anything that struck them as notable enough to make them remember he’s their Senator.
Either way, for Burr, it looks to me like the polls continue to be bad news.
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