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In the Senate race it’s deja vu all over again for the third time: The same scarlet thread running through the races for President and Governor runs right on through Elizabeth Dole’s race.

 

If you like George Bush, you vote for Senator Dole. If you don’t, you vote for Kay Hagan – except for a handful of anti-Bush Republicans.

 

And, just as with McCain and McCrory, the remnant of old Jessecrats – 7% of the vote – who are favorable to President Bush break party ranks and vote for Senator Dole. So, she leads:

 

Elizabeth Dole

Kay Hagan

Christopher Cole

Undecided

44.5

41.0

1.0

14.5

 

The undecided voters also like Dole more than Hagan.

 

 

Dole

Hagan

Favorable

32

12

Unfavorable

30

24

 

And the undecided votes in Dole’s race are voting for John McCain over Barack Obama for President.

 

McCain

44

Obama

22

Barr

3

Undecided

31

 

To put it bluntly: Senator Dole needs 41% of the undecided vote to win – and that 44% voting for McCain should give it to her.

 

Finally, there’s one other fact about the undecided voters. They don’t like President Bush.

 

 

Bush

Favorable

35

Unfavorable

46

 

That’s good and bad news for Kay Hagan. Good because she’ll almost surely get the 46%. Bad because she needs 62% of the undecided vote to win – so even if she gets the support of every undecided voter unfavorable to President Bush – she still comes up short.

 

Tomorrow…the Final Chapter.

 

 

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