A few weeks ago, watching the Obama campaign’s energy, I predicted he would win North Carolina in a blowout, maybe by 20 points.

A few months ago, watching the aggressiveness of Richard Moore’s campaign, I thought he might upset Bev Perdue.

Today, Primary Day, looks different.  It’s a reminder that – being exercises in human error and folly – campaigns are never predictable.

Clearly, the girls have the momentum.

Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead here by 10.  But Clinton’s internal polls show the lead at only five.  And they’re holding Bill Clinton in reserve here – just in case she pulls off the upset.  Bubba would love to give that speech.

If Obama wins by less than eight points, the story will be that, like King Henry II, he still needs someone to rid him of his meddlesome priest.  Eight to 10 points would be a no-decision.  Double digits would be an Obama win that – if he wins Indiana – could shut down the Clinton campaign. 

Clinton’s campaign has shown more energy and brains here than Obama’s.  Her manager, Ace Smith, is a star.

If she wins, Mike Easley automatically becomes running-mate material.  One of his former aides said he had seen more of Easley this week than when he worked for him.

Another prediction I made a couple of weeks ago was that Bev Perdue would regret her “positive campaign” pledge.  Wrong.  Moore played into her hands with the KKK attack.  She appears to be cruising to a comfortable victory, with a margin big enough to end speculation that Moore will run for the U.S. Senate next.

Will Bev now pledge a positive campaign in the fall?

The Republicans appear poised to reply their 1970s battles between Piedmont and Western moderates (the descendants of Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin) against Eastern conservatives (the line of Jesse Helms and Jim Gardner).

My Republican friends tell me Pat McCrory was slow to react to Fred Smith’s attacks against him as the Charlotte candidate.

Smith may have missed a chance himself.  My smart friend Ferrel Guillory, ex of the N&O and now with the UNC Journalism School, wonders why Smith didn’t present himself as the Triangle candidate.  Guillory’s excellent reports contain the surprising finding that there are usually more Republican voters in Wake County than in Mecklenburg. Click www.southnow.org for a link.

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