Obama Blowout

All the signs point to a blowout for Barack Obama in North Carolina.

More than 100,000 new voters have registered, including a surge of Democrats and African-Americans.

Some 5,700 people showed up to see Michele Obama in Raleigh, twice the size of any crowd she’s had anywhere.

Most telling, Richard Moore and Bev Perdue are racing each other to get closest to Obama.

Some Democrats think black turnout could be 40 percent of the primary electorate.  Do the math: If Obama gets 90 percent of the black vote, he already has 36 percent of the total.  If he gets just one third of the white vote, he will have 56 percent in the primary.  And it could go higher.

He could win here by 20 points.

That would be the final blow for Hillary Clinton, especially if Pennsylvania is close.  She would have to bow out once all the primaries and caucuses are over.

This dynamic probably helps Bev Perdue in the governor’s race – and Hampton Dellinger in the Lieutenant Governor’s race.

Left out will be Governor Easley, who may endorse Clinton, and John and Elizabeth Edwards, who clearly are favoring Clinton now.  The Edwards have praised her poverty plan and her health-care plan, and Elizabeth even welcomed an open convention. 

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