Gary Pearce posted on January 08, 2008 13:31
An experienced ocean-swimmer knows what to do in a riptide. Don’t panic, and don’t fight it. Swim parallel to the shore until you’re out of trouble. Then get back to dry land.
That’s what Hillary Clinton and John Edwards should do now. They’re caught in a Barack Obama tide. There’s no fighting it. But there is a way to survive it.
Clinton is drowning because she’s thrashing. Lashing out at Obama. Choking up.
Edwards seems to get it. Maybe because he has a vacation home on the coast. After thrashing himself for a couple of days, he attacked Clinton, not Obama – and got back to his message.
Either Clinton or Edwards might still become the Comeback Kid. Not in New Hampshire. And probably not South Carolina. But the time will come for one of them.
For now, the Obama tide is a political force of nature. But this too shall pass. The media will turn on him. The voters will have second thoughts.
To switch metaphors, the race is like Whack-a-Mole. Every candidate who jumps up gets whacked.
That’s what happened to Hillary. In the long run, it could be just what she needed. Didn’t her advisers want to “soften” and “humanize” her? Wasn’t her problem the aura of inevitability? Well, that’s gone now.
There are more than 25 reasons for Clinton and Edwards to keep their heads up.
Four of them vote this month: Nevada, Michigan, Florida and South Carolina.
On February 5, there are states from New York to California.
In the South there will be Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee. On the border there is Oklahoma and West Virginia.
In the West there is Arizona, Colorado, Montana and New Mexico.
In the Northeast there is Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts and New Jersey.
Even after February 5, there is a loooooong time before the convention.
In other words, a lot of chances for Obama to stumble. Chances and for Clinton and Edwards to win somewhere. And chances for the tide to turn dramatically.
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