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04
A year ago when my health insurance went up I grumbled and blamed Blue Cross. Then, this year, my new bill arrived and the premium went up again even more. But this time I didn’t blame Blue Cross. I laid the blame squarely on the shoulders of one man: Barack Obama.
 
In bygone days, when George Bush wanted to invade Iraq Colin Powell warned, Sure, you can whip Iraq, but that’s not the problem – the problem is after you whip Iraq you own it. What happens then?
 
Back in 2009, someone should have warned President Obama, Sure, you can pass Obamacare, but the problem is after you do you ‘own’ healthcare – every premium increase is going to be your premium increase.  
 
The President moved heaven and earth and won but now, five years later, it hasn’t turned out the way he expected: Every time a premium goes up he gets blamed. Which proves the old proverb, Be careful what you wish for…

 

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03
Carter said a “celebrity” campaign was different. Now I get it. Working with Clay Aiken is unlike any campaign I’ve seen.
 
Aiken starts with the most valuable quality a candidate can have today. He is a genuine political outsider in a time when voters are disgusted with politics. And he has near-universal name recognition. He doesn’t have to buy that on TV.
 
His challenge as a candidate is – or, was – different. Call it the WTF Factor. As in “Clay Aiken for Congress? WTF?” People know who he is, but is he qualified?
 
Aiken put that to rest in his five-minute announcement video. It has been viewed more than 600,000 times. Then he walked a gauntlet of interviews in the state and national media. When people hear him and talk to him, they realize he knows the district, knows the issues and knows what people are going through.
 
Now he’s on a roll. People react to him like to no other politician. I saw it last weekend at the College Dems/Young Dems convention and at Lillian’s List this week. The room buzzes when he comes in. People watch him. They take his measure. They want to take pictures with him.
 
Aiken seizes that moment. He takes their cell phone and snaps a selfie with them. Now, “#selfieswithclay” is a thing.
 
All this explains why he has a 20-point lead in the Democratic primary. And why the DCCC has put this race on the radar. And why Renee Ellmers suddenly looks spooked.

 

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01
A doctor is a simple creature. He measures achievement by a straightforward standard – the Hippocratic Oath.
 
A businessman also measures success by a simple standard – money, income and outgo.
 
But a bureaucrat has the misfortune of breathing and walking in the murky world of insider politics. Which is like no other world on earth.
 
Take Medicaid.
 
State Bureaucrats who work for state government run the program, but Washington pays most (roughly 2/3rds) of the bills. 
 
And, awhile back, some well-intentioned soul, I guess in Congress, decided if the bureaucrats in Raleigh mismanaged Medicaid and wasted Washington’s money the state should pay the money back. 
 
Which sounded fine.  It sounded like ‘accountability’ in the normal world.
 
But, in politics, ‘accountability’ led to an unintended consequence. 
 
The other day the News & Observer reported the State Auditor had reviewed a sample of 280 Medicaid claims and found $439,000 in overpayments.
 
That doesn’t sound too bad – but, in fact, last year the state paid 88 million Medicaid claims. So if an audit of 280 claims turned up $440,000 in waste – what on earth would an audit of all the claims turn up?
 
The answer is no one has a clue. Not the State Auditor. Or the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Or the Governor. 
 
And there’s a simple reason why:  That well-intended law someone in Washington passed years ago.
 
Follow the math.
 
If an audit (of the entire Medicaid program) found, say, $500 million in waste the state would be out its third of the money – $167,000 million. And it’d probably never see that money again.
 
But, in addition, the state would have to repay Washington for its 2/3rds of the money – $333 million.
 
So, in all, the state’s out a total of $500 million.
 
On the other hand, if the state does nothing, and doesn’t look for any waste, it doesn’t have to repay Washington a penny. It’s still out $167 million. But that beats being out $500 million. And that’s where the law of unintended consequences comes into play.
 
Naturally, no bureaucrat in state government is set on rooting out the waste in Medicaid.

 

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01
It’s amazing how fast politicians go from being all for openness and transparency to all-out for keeping public information from the public.
 
Take the Republican legislators’ fight to keep secret their emails about redistricting. Hmmm, wonder what they might be hiding there?
 
Then take DENR. Last Friday at about 5 pm, the department dumped 900 files and 13,000 pages of records about coal ash. Hmmm. (For the uninitiated, a 5 pm Friday document dump is the classic PR strategy for hiding something.)
 
Then, the DENR website promptly crashed. Hmmm. I’m still waiting for Republicans to howl about that like they did yesterday when the Affordable Care Act website crashed with heavy sign-up traffic.
 
But there’s a problem with that old PR strategy in a new digital media world. Now everybody, not just a few overworked reporters and researchers, can search the documents and find out what the politicians and bureaucrats are hiding.
 
WRAL provided a helpful link where you can do your own investigating. Have at it here.

 

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31
I don’t know why but I’ve become absorbed by the machinations of bureaucrats – it’s a bit like watching Alice in Wonderland: Down is up, and up is down.
 
Take hard work.
 
Businessmen work hard to get ahead.
 
Students work hard for better grades.
 
But who joins a bureaucracy to work hard?
 
The most prominent bureaucracies in North Carolina are the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources. DHHS has the most problems. Because it’s biggest. But lately, with the Duke coal ash spill, DENR’s been in the most trouble.
 
For several years, on behalf of a client, I’ve been studying how DENR works with corporations (in this case Alcoa) and it’s not as dull as it sounds.
 
DENR’s supposed to protect the environment but how the bureaucrats go about it depends on their individual wants and needs which brings us back to hard work.
 
The bureaucrats, basically, don’t go out and find pollution. Instead they tell a corporation like Alcoa or Duke Power, File a report, tell us if you’ve polluted, and what you’re doing about it.
 
The corporation hires lawyers who file hundreds or thousands of pages of reports that primarily say, We haven’t polluted very much and none of the pollution is a threat to anyone, so we simply propose to monitor it.
 
After that, corporate lawyers go on filing reports for years saying, We’re still monitoring – and DENR bureaucrats stamp the reports and file them and that’s it.
 
No one breaks a sweat.
 
Of course, sometimes, an unfortunate bureaucrat runs into a trickier problem.
 
A couple of years ago a group of corporations who own dams on rivers had to renew their ‘State Water Quality Certificates,’ so they all got together with the bureaucrats at DENR and more or less said, Let’s all agree this isn’t going to be a hardship for anyone.
 
That was civil enough but the bureaucrats looking at the businessmen, right off, spotted an unspoken undercurrent. Duke Energy and Progress Energy had plenty of friends in places like the Governor’s office and the legislature and, of course, no bureaucrat in his right mind wants to get on the wrong side of a powerful politician – everyone of those corporations got their ‘Water Quality Certificate.’
 
And that’s, more or less, how DENR’s worked for years.
 
The bureaucrats survived peacefully by not offending powerful politicians and, beyond that, avoided over-exertion. It all worked out happily until, as almost always happens, there was a day of reckoning.
 
The coal ash spill.
 
Suddenly the bureaucrats found themselves being slammed in newspapers and on the six o’clock news and found themselves answering awkward questions at press conferences. They were in a media maelstrom.
 
Then a worse blow fell: Subpoenas started arriving on their desks from the U.S. Attorney.  
And, in all likelihood, an even worse blow is in the works: The politicians, who they’ve been accommodating for years, are going to say, Don’t blame us. If the bureaucrats had done their job we wouldn’t have had a spill.

 

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31
“A change is coming, and it’s blue.” That’s the conclusion of an op-ed that looked at why more young Americans are voting Democratic. And it was my conclusion after several hours at the College Democrats/Young Democrats convention in Greenville Saturday.
 
I found an impressive group of smart, dedicated and determined Democrats who are getting involved and leading now. I left with a new optimism about the future.
 
The op-ed is by Charles Blow in The New York Times, who wrote about two Gallup reports: “U.S. Seniors Have Realigned With the Republican Party” and “Young Americans’ Affinity for Democratic Party Has Grown.”
 
Blow wrote, “Part of the reason for the Democratic swing among young people is the incredible diversity of the group. Gallup estimates that 45 percent of Americans 18-29 are nonwhite. But that doesn’t account for all of the change”
 
Gallup noted, “Young adults are not more Democratic solely because they are more racially diverse. In recent years, young white adults, who previously aligned more with the Republican Party, have shifted Democratic. From 1995 to 2005, young whites consistently identified as or leaned Republican rather than Democratic, by an average of 8 points. Since 2006, whites aged 18 to 29 have shown at least a slight Democratic preference in all but one year, with an average advantage of 3 points.”
 
In other words, time is not on the Republicans’ side. As Blow wrote, “The wave of demographic change and the liberal leaning of the young can’t be held back indefinitely through obstruction and aggression.” In fact, GOP voter suppression – along with policies like gay-bashing, immigrant-bashing, minority-bashing, climate change-bashing, teacher-bashing, etc. – only accelerates and hardens young Americans’ attitudes.
 
Then mix in the rising cadre of young leaders I met this weekend. So I tell my aging but young-at-heart Democratic peers: Don’t despair. Get busy making way for and mentoring this new generation. They’re going to save our state.

 

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28
About a month ago Greg Brannon, dead-set on getting elected to the Senate,  was trying to build momentum and gain ground on front-runner Thom Tillis then, out of a clear blue sky, two investors sued Brannon for flamoozling them out of $250,000 and a jury ruled he had to repay the money.
 
That opened a window for Reverend Mark Harris, who promptly released a poll showing he’d surged past Brannon and was now the one gaining on Tillis then a reporter pointed out a flaw in Harris’ claim – he’d polled the wrong voters.  
 
Everything looked rosy for Thom Tillis until the roof fell in on him too: The press reported he’d claimed he’d graduated from the University of Maryland – when he hadn’t.     
 
Tillis’ campaign changed two websites, changed his official legislative page, and the front runner told voters where he went to college didn’t matter but, then, before the smoke cleared, former Representative John Rhodes slammed Tillis with a broadside:  Tillis, he said, had violated state ethics laws by appointing political donors to the UNC Board.
 
Politicians appointing donors to the UNC Board is nothing new – but Tillis had made an unusual mistake.  Trying to smooth out a rough patch that had landed one of his appointees in the soup, Tillis had emailed House Republicans explaining just how much money his nominee had donated. You don’t see that every day.
 
Then Rhodes (who Tillis had defeated in a primary back in 2006) fired another broadside:  Tillis, he said, was a paintballer.
 
Holding a canister of green paintballs, Rhodes passed out two letters to reporters:  One from a farmer near Cornelius, asking Tillis to reimburse him $200 for paintballing his barn. And the other from Tillis back to the farmer, saying, Yes, he was a paintballer but he was innocent in this case.
 
It was better than a reality show.

 

 

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27
Thomas Mills at PoliticsNC riled up some Democrats when he questioned the strategy of going after the Koch brothers.
 
I have the same question. Is this a classic case of chasing the cape and missing the matador?
 
A national poll this week showed that half of all Americans don’t even know who the Koch brothers are. So why would voters care?
 
The Kochs are a fixation of the political class. But for most voters, all billionaires look alike, all politics looks crooked, corrupt and controlled by the rich and powerful, and both parties are guilty.
 
Rather than waste money on this heavy lift, Mills said, Senator Hagan and Democratic super PACs should focus on Thom Tillis:
 
“…(T)he guilt-by-association strategy seems so obviously flawed that watching the resources go into it is disheartening. In North Carolina, we’ve built a cottage industry attacking Art Pope and wrapping Republican policies and candidates around him. So far, it’s succeeded in getting us the first Republican governor in 20 years and a Republican legislature with veto proof majorities. Now, the Washington Democrats are adopting the model….
 
“The Democrats have taken a defensive posture with a reactive response. In essence, they’ve ceded the political agenda to the Koch Brothers and the Republicans. They should be attacking GOP policies and candidates, not GOP funders.
 
“In North Carolina, they are nationalizing the election while ignoring fertile ground in the state. If they need to wrap Thom Tillis around something, wrap him around the legislature. Under his leadership, they’ve cut funding to public schools and universities, limited women’s access to health, tried to disenfranchise minorities and young people and raised taxes on our poorest workers. There are issues that will motivate the base and persuade the middle. Use them.
 
“And consistently, Tillis has tried to be something that he’s not. When he’s talking to country clubbers, he’s a moderate. When he’s talking to Tea Partiers, he’s a conservative. He says he graduated from the University of Maryland, but he didn’t. He even says in his latest commercial that he was a “partner at IBM,” when IBM is a corporation not a law firm or accounting agency. And he doesn’t even mention serving as speaker of the house. He’s just another phony politician. Expose him, not the Kochs. He’s the one on the ballot.”

 

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26
Charlotte minister Mark Harris, who’s running for Senate, hit a rough patch when he released a poll showing him trailing Thom Tillis by 11 points – an inconvenient fact his political aide, Tom Perdue, brushed aside by saying, “The fact that we are down actually means we are way up.”
 
Saying down is up may sound odd, but in politics, when the news is bad, spreading a little confusion can’t make it worse and may make it better.
 
Of course, Harris also had a subtler reason for releasing his poll.  He’d asked voters a series of questions about Thom Tillis’ ‘foibles’ like the “sex scandal”  in Tillis’ office (when his Chief of Staff had an affair with a lobbyist) and Tillis appointing his donors to the UNC Board. Then Harris had asked voters a second time whether they’d vote for him or Tillis.
 
Naturally, Harris’ prospects brightened:  For one moment, at least in that poll, he was soaring with the wind beneath his wings.
 
But then the ground shifted beneath his feet: The press had spotted a peculiar number in the poll – according to Harris, 12% of the folks who vote in Republican primaries are African-Americans and that’s never (or, at least, never in memory) happened. 
 
The Reverend had polled the wrong people.
 
It was a tough day for Mark Harris but look on the bright side: There’re better ways to run for office. He doesn’t have to learn one mistake at a time.

 

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25
You couldn’t design a more perfect Democratic candidate for Wake County in 2014 than Sarah Crawford. Proven success in a professional career and in community service – check. Attended public schools and college here – check. Young mother with children in public schools – check. Energy, smarts, savvy and a fiendishly hard worker – check, check, check and check.
 
Crawford is as in tune with her district (Senate 18 – Franklin and eastern Wake) as incumbent Chad Barefoot is out. Barefoot’s anti-education, party-line voting record in an unpopular legislature is poison in a moderate swing district.
 
The NC Free Enterprise Foundation rates the race as one of the three most competitive Senate seats this year. Crawford will give Barefoot fits.
 
I admit to bias, but only because I’ve seen Crawford at work. We met a year ago, when we were thrown together in a fast-moving effort to launch the Jamie Kirk Hahn Foundation. Crawford,, who works in nonprofit development and public relations, was one of the main fundraisers, and she was a major reason the foundation raised more than $200,000 in just six months.
 
Sarah is one of the all-star candidates in Wake County who could ignite a Democratic comeback this year. The others are Gale Adcock (House 41), Kim Hanchette (House 49) and former Mayor Tom Bradshaw (Senate 15).
 
As John (Locke) Hood noted in his column a while back, “for Democrats, Wake County is probably their best potential investment of time and resources in 2014….Democrats have gotten their Wake-up call.”
 

 

 

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Carter & Gary
 
Carter Wrenn
 
 
Gary Pearce
 
 
The Charlotte Observer says: “Carter Wrenn and Gary Pearce don’t see eye-to-eye on many issues. But they both love North Carolina and know its politics inside and out.”
 
Carter is a Republican. 
Gary is a Democrat.
 
They met in 1984, during the epic U.S. Senate battle between Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt. Carter worked for Helms and Gary, for Hunt.
 
Years later, they became friends. They even worked together on some nonpolitical clients.
 
They enjoy talking about politics. So they started this blog in 2005. 
 
They’re still talking. And they invite you to join the conversation.
 
 
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